THE war eventually came to an end—albeit with a hint of absurdity.
Yet, despite that, the important question remains: what were the factors that contributed to the ceasefire? By the fourth or fifth day of the conflict, it was becoming evident that things were moving toward a ceasefire. There were certain realities behind this thought. Those who desired peace were reaching a logical conclusion, but they—myself included—overlooked one crucial aspect: those who initiated the war would also need a pretext to end it.
We’ll discuss that pretext, but a more important question is: why did the need for a ceasefire arise in the first place? The answer to this lies in a fundamental miscalculation. Israel attacked Iran under the assumption that, after nearly half a century, the Iranian people were fed up with their revolutionary leadership and ideological regime, and longed to be rid of them.
This assumption was not entirely baseless. There is an opposition within Iran, and they indeed desire change. But did those who wanted change desire it at the price of servitude? That was not the case. Israel believed that Reza Pahlavi had become their puppet, and thus, victory was within their grasp. It soon became clear that Iranian society harboured no sympathy for either Israel or its stooges. This miscalculation became the first foundation of Israel’s defeat.
The second miscalculation concerned Iran’s defensive resolve. Perhaps Israel believed that, having been isolated from the world, Iran’s defensive capability and morale had disintegrated, and that after a few strikes, Iran would collapse entirely, sparking an uprising. This, too, proved to be a false assumption. While Iran indeed lacked an effective air force, it had spent the past few decades focusing intensely on missile technology. With those missiles, Iran stunned Israel.
The third aspect of this war is particularly interesting and directly linked to the second. This conflict demonstrated that Israel is a sprinter—a 100-meter runner. In the long run, it runs out of breath. That is exactly what happened in this war. Once Iran withstood Israel’s initial assault, it became evident that Israel’s morale had collapsed. There were two reasons for this. The first was the shattering of Israel’s aura of invincibility at the very beginning of the war. Its so-called “Iron Dome” failed almost immediately. That failure caused Israel to falter, and with that, the need for a ceasefire became apparent—the first reason behind the ceasefire.
The second reason was related to Israel’s arsenal. By the fourth or fifth day, Israel—the 100-meter sprinter—was running out of ammunition, while Iran’s stockpiles still held plenty of missiles that could have kept Israel on edge for weeks to come. This was the second reason for the ceasefire. These were the factors that made the ceasefire foreseeable within the first week of the war. The peace-seekers believed that since the conditions for a ceasefire were ripe, it would naturally follow. However, they overlooked one reality: even a ceasefire needs a pretext. That pretext came in the form of the U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
It is no longer a secret that Iran had advance knowledge of that attack. The clearest evidence is that there was no enriched uranium at the site, nor were there any casualties. The American attack sent shockwaves across the globe. It seemed the war would now engulf the entire region. Yet, within hours of that attack, reports emerged that President Trump had sought Qatar’s assistance to broker a ceasefire. What did this mean? It meant that by launching the attack, the U.S. provided Israel with a face-saving exit while simultaneously offering the same opportunity to Iran. This is the absurd aspect of the war.
Now, consider the global diplomatic activity after Israel—the 100-meter sprinter—ran out of breath. Recall whom Trump met with. It becomes quite clear who was actively working to pull the world back from the brink of this bloody crisis. Witnessing all of this, one begins to believe in the predictions of Western thinkers regarding Pakistan’s emerging greatness.
—This writer is former advisor to the President of Pakistan, author & mass media theorist.
(farooq.adilbhuta@gmail,com)
