ON 13 June 2025, Israel attacked Iran, with its brutal and indiscriminate bombing of military and civilian facilities alike.
Israel made these attacks, with the complete approval and support of the US. Iran’s nuclear program has been a bug bear for Israel for at least the last couple of decades. Israel, for some reason, had not been given the green signal by saner US Presidents before Trump. Netanyahu somehow convinced Trump of the merit of the Israel attack, when America was using nuclear negotiations with Iran as a ruse.
Thus, the brutal 12-day war between Israel and Iran ensued, with both sides claiming victory. The US, Israel’s main supporter and paymaster, joined in briefly on the last day, claiming to have obliterated Iran’s nuclear program by destroying enrichment sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz. But clearly, all sides could not have won. Key developments during the conflict must be analyzed. Israel attacked Iran without declaring war, implementing a decapitation strategy targeting Iran’s top military leadership, IRGC commanders, and nearly a dozen nuclear scientists with their families. Such precision strikes implied Mossad’s deep penetration on the ground in Iran.
Israel’s attack on military high command as well as Iran’s nuclear facilities was to create a chain reaction in Iran, which would ultimately move towards the collapse of the regime in the country. But soon the Israeli PM found out that all his intelligence on the ground in Iran as well as his high tech stealth attack on Iran, failed to achieve its objective. Some of Netanyahu’s goals in attacking Iran were quite clear. This genocidal regime was coming under increasing international pressure to stop the ethnic cleansing and massacre of civilians, mostly children in Gaza. According to the theory he needed a diversion, hence the limited 12 days war with Iran. Even during this brief interlude of 12 days, Israel continued the killing and starving of Palestinian civilians.
Secondly, Israel would have ideally wanted a change of regime in Iran, preferably with a puppet like Raza Pehalvi who was activated for the job. In case this was not possible, a regime collapse would do. In a civil war followed by regime collapse, the ethnic minorities like the Kurds and the Baloch would be supported to carve out autonomous zones in the north-west and south-east respectively. These zones could act as launching pads against the forces occupying Tehran. The third most significant aim of Israel seemed to be to suck the US into the Iran war. In this aim Israel succeeded partially at least.
As far as the Israel–Iran war went, in less than 24 hours after Israel killed the top Iranian military leadership, they were replaced by equally experienced commanders. While Iran was still under Israeli air-attack, it started showering missiles on Israel. In the beginning the world thought that the missiles would just be a token resistance but soon newer and more lethal missiles started hitting Tel Aviv, Hifa and Beersheba, to mention a few sites.
The Israeli, so called impenetrable “Iran Dome”, could not intercept many of the advanced Iranian missiles. Israelis who were used to seeing the devastation caused by their army, only on their TV screens, were for the first time on the receiving end. They saw their intelligence centers, defense ministry, power generation plants, airports and even residential areas being targeted by lethal Iranian warheads.
Trump by defying his MAGA support base entered the war temporarily. The American Air Force attacked the three underground nuclear sites, especially Fordow buried deep under the mountain, with 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs. A scripted and a largely ineffectual missile attack from Iran on an American air base in Qatar followed. After this the US asked for peace. It is being said by experts that Israel being low on missile intercepting missiles also pushed the US to take steps to secure a ceasefire between Iran and Israel.
According to independent sources, the damage to the Iranian uranium enrichment sites was reversible. This was contrary to Trump’s claims that Iranian nuclear capabilities were totally obliterated. Having a trained manpower force in nuclear enrichment, it should not be long before Iran starts enriching its uranium again. It must be amplified, that attacks by any country on the nuclear facilities of any other country are totally against the laws of the “International Atomic Energy Agency” IAEA.
As far as Iran is concerned, the very fact that it survived the joint Israeli-US onslaught is a victory by itself. There is also talk about a peace deal in Gaza. If that also materializes, and the killing of innocent Palestinian stops, that will be another feather in Iran’s cap. Many analysts see this ceasefire as only temporary. They project that very soon another round of hostilities between Israel and Iran might take place. Israel would again be supported by the US and its European minions as amply demonstrated in the NATO Summit about the nature of the US – Europe relationship.
To avoid such a fate, Iran must learn from the situation of its allies—Hezbollah in Lebanon and Bashar Al Assad in Syria. It would not be a bad idea if, for the sake of its survival and to be able to fight another day, Iran temporarily halts the process of uranium enrichment. Unable to predict the long-term effects of this conflict, Iran has, for now, come forward to represent the aspiration to resist oppression felt by many oppressed people around the world.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
( marwat.akbarjan@gmail.com)
