THE ceasefire between Israel and Iran, tenuous as it is, is holding.
So does that mean the state of war between the two nations is resolved? Obviously not. But neither is it feasible that any peaceful resolution will ever be reached. What’s been happening in the Middle East since October 7th, 2023 is one of the two big conflicts of our time, the other being the war in Ukraine. The difference is that the continent of Europe always maintains a clear distinction between wartime and peacetime, hence calm prevailing until Russian troops invaded on 22 February, 2022 and war raging between Russia and Ukraine continuously since then.
The nature of violence in the Middle East is very different. The 12-day Israel-Iran war is just a particularly big flare-up, but with the ceasefire being merely a pause in fighting, there are other directions for the conflict to head into. To anticipate what comes next, we must understand what difference the 12-day shooting war made.
Some say Israel is in its strongest position since after the 1967 war. Meanwhile, Iran suffered heavy losses to both nuclear and military assets. But the attacks by Israel and the US also broke its shackles. It is highly likely that the Iranians now earnestly seek to acquire nuclear weapons, as a way to deter foreign threats if nothing else. But any further nuclear progress is likely to draw in more attacks from Israel and America. So, to protect itself, Iran will be looking for ways to rebuild its geopolitical power.
The Axis of Resistance was severely degraded last year, but Iran will have to reinvigorate anti-Israeli resistance and project its influence in the Middle East by restructuring the Axis. It might involve escalation of resistance in Gaza and the West Bank, or Iran spreading its influence into Syria again and maybe even into Jordan. Iran will basically probe any opportunity to increase its regional power and derive advantage from how things are changing in the Middle East.
Iran’s military strength is the prime factor in the current power struggle. Building an Iranian nuclear arsenal after the recent strikes on nuclear facilities will take a while, but so have Israel’s wars post-October 7th. In the meantime, Iran will be focused on rebuilding its other assets.
The war in the Middle East will continue heating up. There is no doubt about it. But it will be a while before the next flare-up. What that flare-up will look like is hard to predict. But carefully watch how all sides are ramping up their rivalries against each other. The Houthis apparently ended their ceasefire with America after the B-2s bombed Iran. Israel made the unprecedented decision to designate Iran’s Central Bank a terrorist organization. These and many other moves hint at the upcoming course of the war, but ultimately, what is unfolding before our eyes is the culmination of decades of strategic and sociopolitical forces lining up. Now, everything is rolling in motion and relative stability will not return until the Middle East is transformed forever.
—The writer is Director at Pakistan’s People Led Disaster Management.
(shahzebkhansaheb@gmail.com)
