EVER since the BJP under Prime Minister Modi assumed power, India’s arrogance towards Pakistan has soared.
Every goodwill gesture or peace initiative from Pakistan was contemptuously rejected.
After India’s formal annexation of Kashmir in 2019, its hubris became unrestrained.
Without any investigation into the Pahalgam massacre, India hastily blamed Pakistan and announced punitive action to “teach it a lesson.”
On May 9, India launched attacks on multiple sites in Punjab and Azad Kashmir, killing dozens of civilians, including women and children.
This was followed by an air assault involving over 70 Indian aircraft.
Pakistan responded with about 40 jets, including JF-17 Thunders and J-10Cs.
The ensuing aerial battle, involving more than 100 aircraft, lasted over an hour and became a textbook case of modern air warfare.
When the confrontation ended, India had lost five aircraft—three French-made Rafales, one MiG-29, one Su-30—and several Israeli-made “Horrors” drones.
In response to this violation of its sovereignty, Pakistan vowed retaliation.
The following night, India attacked three Pakistani airbases.
Pakistan countered by targeting 26 Indian sites, including an S-400 air defence system and a BrahMos missile depot.
Reports in India Today stated that four Indian airbases—Udhampur, Pathankot, Adampur, and Bhuj—were destroyed in the retaliatory strikes.
The missile warfare was soon accompanied by a barrage of drones and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), hitting key strategic installations.
The conflict had now escalated to a highly dangerous level.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif convened the National Command Authority on May 10, heightening alarm globally, especially in the United States.
Initially, the US Vice President dismissed the matter as “none of our business.
” But that perception shifted rapidly.
The US reportedly learned through its channels that Pakistan’s National Command Authority, which oversees the country’s nuclear assets, was close to authorizing their use if India launched another attack.
Aware of Pakistan’s lower nuclear threshold due to its conventional military disadvantage, Washington recognized the gravity of the situation.
In response, the US initiated urgent ceasefire efforts.
Vice President JD Vance contacted Prime Minister Modi, who quickly agreed, knowing India’s military campaign had failed.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio then spoke with General Asim Munir, who, after seeking approval from PM Shehbaz Sharif, agreed to a ceasefire, which was ultimately formalized by President Trump.
Before concluding this article with the important lessons drawn from this limited Indo-Pak war, I would like to say a word or two about why India underestimated Pakistan’s military powers to this extent.
First Pakistan is very polarized politically; this may have given India the erroneous impression of Pakistan being a soft state with a weak military establishment.
The ongoing financial talks with the IMF, which India had tried to disrupt, must also have given India the impression of Pakistan being an impoverished State not able to defend itself.
Luckily for Pakistan, these Indian impressions proved patently false.
The US intervention at India’s behest automatically placed India and Pakistan on the same level.
For decades, India had worked to decouple itself from Pakistan in the eyes of the West—particularly the United States—by projecting itself as being in a much higher league in terms of economic strength, technological advancement, and military capability.
India sought recognition as the rightful American pivot in the region and the dominant regional hegemon.
One tweet from President Trump caused India to lose its presumed superiority.
The weak performance of the Indian Air Force during its attack on Pakistan—and the loss of five aircraft, including three state-of-the-art Rafales—completely shattered India’s image as a regional hegemon.
American observers must have questioned: if India could not withstand Pakistan’s Air Force, how would it fare against China?
It likely became clear to the United States that India remains a mid-level military power, still requiring significant improvement and investment to fulfill the role of a Chinese counterbalance that the US had envisioned for it.
The downing of the Rafale jets by Chinese J-10C fighters also raised global strategic concerns, as it marked the first time Chinese weapon technology was tested in actual combat.
In view of India’s less than stellar performance, the US has already announced to sell fifth generation F-35 to India.
On the other hand, China, Turkey and Pakistan are in an advanced stage of developing its own fifth generation aircraft KAAN.
Pakistan can always and on a short notice acquire J-20 and J-35 air craft from China.
Most importantly Kashmir has again assumed the status of the main problem between India and Pakistan.
The international world, especially the US, must have realized that Kashmir is the flash point between two nuclear powers and for durable peace, something has to be done about the Kashmir issue.
It can no longer be ignored as an obscure bilateral conflict between two countries.
This success against India served as a shot in the arm for Pakistan.
It is now better positioned to confront internal challenges, such as the TTP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the BLA in Balochistan, with greater confidence.
India’s involvement in supporting these militant organizations must be exposed in a more irrefutable manner.
To secure a more sustainable and assertive role on the global stage, Pakistan must implement structural reforms in both its economic and political systems.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP. ( marwat.akbarjan@gmail.com)
