AVM M Z Faisal
IT was shocking, unexpected, and out of the blue. The blazing multi-directional and multi-domain offensive by Hamas on Israel from nearly 22 locations has sent shockwaves to Israel and has stunned the world. By the scale, ingress, and ferocity, the incident is said to be incomparable to anything since the Arab-Israel war of 1973. The proclaimed invincibility of Israeli defence lay shattered at the hands of a small guerilla force using low-priced conventional and maybe unorthodox weapons.
Hamas said it carried out the offensive to avenge the desecration of Al-Aqsa Mosque, the sufferings of the people in Gaza, and the ill-treatment meted out to Palestinian prisoners. All stated reasons have convincing evidence, but there could be some complex geo-political perspectives to an otherwise simple-looking justification. One plausible factor of the conflict could relate to the enhanced geo-economic ties of Israel with the Arab states. After the Abraham Accords with UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, President Netanyahu had expressed confidence of establishing diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. An initiative to create an economic corridor from India to Europe through Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel has already been announced.
These developments may have been seen to relegate the Palestinian issue to slumber. For Palestinians, acceptance of Israel as a sovereign state and establishing economic ties with Arabs was supposedly a trump card for implementing a two-state solution. Therefore, if the economic and security stakes with Israel go high, it would become difficult for the Arab world to support Palestine’s cause. Israel’s tactics can be seen clearly in President Netanyahu’s speech at the recent UN General Assembly, where he said, “So when the Palestinians see that most of the Arab world has reconciled itself to the Jewish state, they too will be more likely to abandon the fantasy of destroying Israel and finally embrace a path of genuine peace with it.” In smart understanding, Israel believes that blooming relations with the Arab States will marginalise Palestinians and soften them to accept the peace deal inked by the Israeli pen.
Iran is the devoted enemy of Israel and, therefore, a suspect mastermind of this offensive. The intricate planning, training, intelligence, and weapons, point fingers at Iran’s direct or indirect involvement in this incident. Iran has lauded the operation, but has denied involvement in the conflict. The statement by Iran’s mission to the United Nations called the attack “fiercely autonomous and unwaveringly aligned with the legitimate interests of the Palestinian people.” Iranian national interest has been served by this attack since it has put Saudis in an awkward situation about a potential peace deal with Israel. Saudi foreign ministry said that the kingdom had been warning of an “explosive situation as a result of the continued occupation and deprivation of the Palestinian people’s legitimate rights.” Even the most generous assessment would not predict signing of the Saudi-Israel peace deal for at least 1-2 years.
Yet another important party to the conflict is Russia, whose Foreign Minister, without mincing words, has said, “If America helps Israel, then we will help Palestine”. Only in the coming days will we know if Russia is resorting to similar support to Palestine against Israel that the US is providing to Ukraine against Russia. China would stand by Russia because the US was trying to curtail Chinese ingress into the Middle East by brokering Israeli peace deals and enhancing trade partnerships.
The international reaction to the Hamas attack is the same as expected by any common thinker. The Western world has mostly blamed Hamas for a “terrorist attack,” without mentioning Israeli atrocities, whereas Russia, China, Turkey, and most Arab world have urged de-escalation, peace talks and emphasis on a two-state solution. Hamas’s attack has brought serious humiliation to Israeli defence forces and has reinvigorated the Palestinian case. Israel will take disproportionate revenge and will likely go into a ground offensive.
It will seek US support to veto any resolution that seeks an early end to the conflict. However, Palestinians’ cries may change the Arab public sentiments. If they came out on the street in significant numbers, then Israel will have to respect their emotions if it wants to advance its partnerships in the region. Turkey, Egypt and maybe Saudi Arabia can be the potential negotiators to end this ordeal. Precious lives have been lost along both sides of the fence. Israeli blood is the same as a Palestinian’s, but geopolitics is cruel; that makes one cheaper than the other.
—AVM M Z Faisal (Retd) is the Director of Warfare and Aerospace at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, Pakistan. He can be reached at casslahore@gmail.com
