IN not too distant past, the trouble children of the world community – some would call them pariahs — used to be Pakistan and Iran.
To be fair, there were a few other nations on this short list such as North Korea etc. However, in a few short weeks, how the world attitude has changed. Within six weeks starting on May 7th, when India attacked Pakistan, India and Israel have emerged as the new rogue nations of the world. Jury is not out on where Iran would stand in the eyes of the world, but Pakistan has certainly emerged as a mature and militarily competent nation. Let us consider a few realities defining the current conflicts.
First, let us focus on India and Israel. It should be noted that the only country that sided with India during the recent Pak-India conflict was Israel. Two peas in a pod as they say. Both have ultra nationalistic, populist, dictatorial, non-secular and corrupt leaders who have maintained their positions of power through stoking religious and populist fervour. And whenever their popularity starts waning, they resort to military adventurism. Modi has taken India from the largest secular democracy of the world and an economic powerhouse, to a nation that is isolated in the world due to its diplomatic arrogance as well as military and economic heavy handedness. The recent Pak-India war was proof positive of this isolation since no nation (barring Israel) sided with India. Within the South Asian region too, there is no country that considers India a “friend”. The last pro-India regime of Sheikh Hassina in Bangladesh fell leaving India isolated in the region.
Looking at the second rogue nation, Israel, we see another country that has turned its handful of supporters into detractors. Israel’s brutality in Gaza earned them the disgust of the world community. Their best backers eventually turned on them and publicly chastised them. As if Gaza was not enough, they attacked Iran, unprovoked and unwarranted. This has solidified their reputation as a rogue aggressor. It should be noted that Israel had tried to convince consecutive US regimes since Bill Clinton to support them in attacking Iran’s nuclear sites, but none would bite. In the current regime, they found a President who is easy to manipulate and hence they were able to con the US into jumping into the midst of a war that has all the hallmarks of a large-scale regional war, if not a world war. It might come to a quick end for now if Iran is offered enough carrots, but beware, Iran is not going to forget its humiliation and will quietly plan retaliations, even assassinations, of the responsible leaders.
It is interesting to now compare the difference in response competence by the countries that were on the receiving end of the actions of the fore-mentioned rogue nations, namely, Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan responded to the Indian aggression in a manner that is hailed as extraordinary and worthy of study in war colleges. Not only were they prepared for the Indian move, but they responded efficiently and competently, and took out seven Indian planes on the first day alone. Pakistan’s integration of technology, information and intelligence was a case study for the world’s militaries. In contrast, Iran proved to be a case of a catastrophic response failure. Not only were they caught flatfooted by the Israelis, they lost on every front: they couldn’t stop the missiles; they couldn’t put up an effective response to the aggression; their intelligence failed in a devastating manner whereas Israeli agents all over Iran helped pin point the key sites and human assets (military leaders and nuclear scientists) which were easily taken out. So much so that Iran lost their four key military leaders and numerous nuclear scientists in the first wave. The contrast in preparedness and reaction between Pakistan and Iran is remarkable and Iran would benefit from learning from the Pakistanis.
In the end, it is worth noting that when I initially started writing the article, the main topic of discussion were the two rogue states of the current world – India and Iran. Given what the US did on May 21st, attacking Iran on behest of Israel, we can add USA to the list of rogue states. The bombing of Iran is the latest in their unprecedented attacks which have included attacks on Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Under the current US regime, it is unclear how, when and where USA will attack next, whether militarily or diplomatically. A superpower under the leadership of an unpredictable, insecure, wannabe dictator can end up becoming the biggest rogue state of the world.
—The writer is a former Senior Advisor to the Government and a sector development specialist. He is a member of the APP Think Tank and Pakistan’s Buddhist Heritage Promotion Ambassador for GTPL, a company under SIFC.
