THE recent military conflict between India and Pakistan represents a continuation of a longstanding pattern of confrontations, each escalating in intensity and further deteriorating their already fragile bilateral relations.
India’s aggressive posturing, often tied to domestic political pressures, clashed with Pakistan’s defensive yet provocative responses.
Attacks with missiles and airstrikes as well as deployment of new generation technology and weapons brought them close to an all-out war between two nuclear states.
The unexpected U.S.backed ceasefire has left analysts questioning Washington’s true intentions and its durability.
Its impact on long-term peace and implications for South Asia’s non-nuclear states also remain key topics of debate.
With SAARC inactive and lacking mediation tools, non-nuclear South Asian states feel vulnerable to a more assertive Indian posture threatening their strategic autonomy.
While the crisis has intensified India’s resolve to assert itself as a rising global power, it has also left its posture visibly compromised.
Many international strategists opine that the fragile ceasefire is unfolding amid rising tensions and hostile rhetoric, creating a highly volatile and dangerous scenario.
A return to the pre-May 2025, no-war, no-peace status appears unlikely under Indian continuous allegations of ceasefire violations by Pakistan and its own history of conducting false flag operations.
Meanwhile, the U.S. attention may also diminish gradually as Washington turns to other global crises.
The prospect of formal dialogue resuming, even in the long term, also appears highly unlikely, as India remains adamant to retain hegemony in the region, using the U.S. patronage against China and seems far from adopting a problem-solving approach or seeking common ground to resolve their disputes.
This ceasefire, by and large, is considered more as a stop gap arrangement to avert immediate disaster and opens a window for dialogue.
Without sustained global pressure and efforts to address root causes like Kashmir, the cycle of escalation is likely to continue.
Kashmiris remain caught between militants, military crackdowns and political suppression.
In the wake of the April terrorist attack, India is likely to intensify crackdowns, with many ‘suspected’ terrorists potentially targeted unjustly.
While India seems confused about actual achievements and the effectiveness of realizing its intended goals, Pakistan finds itself on a relatively stronger footing.
The external threat appeared to unify fractured political forces domestically as nationalist passion dominated the country’s political atmosphere.
On the diplomatic front, Islamabad also appears to hold an advantage over New Delhi, which seems displeased with the U.S. administration equating Pakistan with India for its working relationship with both countries.
The U.S. hinting at its possible role in finding a solution concerning Kashmir dispute, aligns more with Islamabad’s preference for international involvement rather than New Delhi’s desire to keep it a bilateral matter.
According to well-informed sources, India appears to be taking advantage of the ceasefire by accelerating efforts to overcome significant setbacks in its defence capabilities, preparing for a potential retaliatory strike, and launching diplomatic initiatives aimed at undermining Pakistan’s interests on the international stage.
Rafale dilemma has put India in a nightmare, finding it difficult to get out of this impasse.
To salvage itself from this big set-back caused by the high played weaponry, India plan to embed indigenous weapons like beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, anti-radiation missile, and a host of smart munitions into the Rafale ecosystem to enhance combat effectiveness and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
However, France is reportedly unwilling to hand over the critical software backbone that governs the Rafale’s mission systems, being a strategic industrial asset not open to foreign manipulations endangering the entire Rafale export pro-gram.
Without access to the underlying digital architecture, India faces a critical capability bottleneck, unable to independently adapt the Rafale to meet evolving operational demands.
To further enhance maritime strike capability, India signed another agreement with France in April 2025 for 26 Rafale-M fighters, the naval variant, to replace the ageing MiG-29K fleet.
In view of this standoff, April 2025 Rafale-M deal could be another test case.
Although unofficial reports suggest covert military and logistical movements into India from some countries, these developments merit close scrutiny due to their potential regional repercussions.
With China overshadowing the prevailing scenario in the sub-continent, will the U.S.continue to gamble on India being the sole security provider in the region, looks less likely but should not be totally ignored.
On the diplomatic front, Indo-US relationship is being seriously revisited by the Indian top hierarchy.
India is reportedly preparing a diplomatic initiative to urge the United States to revoke Pakistan’s Major Non-NATO Ally status, citing Islamabad’s deepening ties with China and alleging it for its inconsistent record on counterterrorism.
Officials in New Delhi argue that continued U.S. support for Pakistan undermines regional stability and contradicts broader Indo-Pacific strategic goals.
India is expected to advocate for stronger US-India defence cooperation and propose enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) oversight of Pakistan’s nuclear assets to address proliferation risks and reinforce global nuclear security.
The Indo-Israel nexus is a tangible reality that existed well before the recent standoff and has remained active throughout the conflict.
This strategic relationship should be a key consideration in formulating all our counter strategies and planning.
Interestingly, India’s foreign minister is also reported to have held a call with the acting foreign minister of Afghanistan, an intriguing development to facilitate accelerated RAW-TTP activities.
Similarly, RAW-BLA collaboration would intensify in coming days to keep Pakistan under pressure.
The recent tragic incident of attack on a school bus in Kuzdar in Baluchistan, killing innocent children is a case in point.
For growing RAW-BLA cooperation, Iranian government needs to be taken in confidence to obtain their clearer perspective on the use of Iranian soil by these terrorists.
Given the evolving regional and global landscape, Pakistan mst critically reassess its defence strategies and foreign relations in light of historical realities, while prioritizing internal stability to confront future challenges with strength, unity and competence.
—The writer is Security Professional, entrepreneur and author, based in Dubai, UAE.
