WASHINGTON has made an enormous bet in the Indo-Pacific. It always has trusted India as a key geostrategic partner in its geopolitical rivalry with China, from George W. Bush to the current President of the US. The US has always treated India as a key partner against the rising power in South Asia. Joe Biden’s Administration has taken this relationship one step forward. Modi’s visit to the US has opened new horizons to further deepen defence cooperation and grant access to cutting-edge technologies; for this, a new bloc named QUAD includes India, Japan, Australia and the United States for regional strategy. Some analysts believe that Washington’s current expectations of India must be revised as India is frightened of China and will never be a reliable partner for the US.
India will never involve itself to make confrontation with China for the US’s sake. Suppose India takes any step against China owing to US’s hegemonic power. In that case, it will put itself at security risk and be threatened by other regional states. The US has tested India to condemn Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine, but India remained silenced. India knows that if it condemns Moscow against Ukraine, it will de-track itself in the ongoing multipolar race within this region. India has always betrayed Washington in its strategic partnership with Russia. India has always worked with all major powers for tangible benefits and has no concern for other power in common threat, such as China.
In the view of US policymakers, a partnership between the two biggest democracies cannot help each other but shows the world that they are nations with a common interest. But both are united to counter China in this region. Whenever American policymakers travel to India, they sing paens to the beauty of Indian politics. They have always been dubious strategies. Policy analysts in the other states believe that the two states’ partnership is based on shared values. Internally, even after becoming prime minister of India, Narendra Modi has suspected the democracy of India in the world’s eyes.
As India has been blamed for the upsurge in violence directed at its Muslim minorities, still, Modi shows itself as the messenger of peace in the region. But fewer scholars in India believe that the current relationship between the two states is evolving around China as Beijing has warned Washington for its hypocritic diplomacy with China that hampered Chinese trade with Western countries. Washington has brought New Delhi close to show them the muscles. For Washington, India is a more pivotal power in Asia. It can counter China in its land border with China. Still, in the eyes of India, the US is the world’s strongest democracy, with advanced technology that could help India in education and investment. Still, on the other side, India has close ties with Moscow that could hamper their arms deal. But many scholars believe India is more open than ever to buying weapons from the West instead of Moscow.
The key members of India’s elite believed that the US was not a reliable partner for India during the cold war as the US had no permanent foes and friends in their policy. They can use Pakistan in the days to come. The US has supported Pakistan in the war on terror and ignored India. The Trump administration finally called Pakistan’s bluff and terminated all military aid. The US can deal the same with India when it becomes closer to Pakistan in the future. Since the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden Administration has proposed a limited strategic relationship with Pakistan; however, a few Washington policymakers give more weightage to Pakistan over India.
India desires to sustain its supremacy in the neighbourhood that other states in the region can not challenge; still, they get frightened of China. As Beijing is a thorn between both powers, US and India, and they do not allow interference of another state to challenge its supremacy. A few bloody skirmishes broke out sporadically between China and India in 2019; since then, India has been frightened by the Chinese incursions from its northern border.
China and Pakistan exchange military and intelligence information occasionally; India has reservations that close ties between China and Pakistan will further raise its security risks. Policy analysts argue that the US has three interests in its relationship with India; first, the US wants to see India as a liberal democracy. The second interest of the US in India is to make India stronger in the multipolar order in Asia, and the third one is to make India prosper in deepened economic ties across the board. However, scholars worldwide believe India currently neither has the domestic military capabilities for internal balancing nor external balancing to guarantee its security interests. But most believe that the current ties between both states are to control Chinese hegemonic power in the region.
—The writer is freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
Email: rashidmehmoodkayani@gmail.com
