PAKISTAN saw over 2867 fatalities in terrorist attacks last year, a 50% increase from 2021 and thrice the number in 2020. This surge in violence has raised concerns about the Afghanistan-based TTP (Tehreek Taliban Pakistan), carrying out attacks on Pakistan. The group, formed in 2007 out of militant networks in the border region, has historical links to the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Recent conflicts along the western borders have highlighted the negative impact of a Taliban-governed government. Pakistan’s efforts to manage tensions between Islamabad and Kabul are failing, as its leverage with the Afghan Taliban is slipping. Not only that the Taliban’s control has led to a humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan and increased risks for regional and international security, they are serious threat to the western border for contesting the Afghan-Pakistan border status as unclear and imaginary.
In September 2021, the Taliban declared the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan as a caretaker government to enforce Islamic rule. The swift takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban has raised concerns about US and Western failures, regional and international security implications and the West’s strategy choices. Majority of the current set-up of the Taliban Government are Pashtun members from southern Afghanistan and are blacklisted by the US and UN for terrorism-related sanctions. Although Pakistan has been an important ally of the Taliban, the Taliban have been funding terrorist organisations and other outlawed groups in Pakistan, which poses grave risks to national security.
Before the civil war in 1978, Afghanistan was a monarchy under Zahir Shah, who came to power in 1933. After World War II, the US and the Soviet Union used economic assistance to compete for influence. After the US established military ties with Pakistan in 1954, Afghanistan increasingly turned to the Soviet Union’s support. In 1964, Zahir Shah convened a Loya Jirga to debate a draft constitution for a more representational government, but he did not relinquish any power, political parties were permitted to organize but not to contest elections. Zahir Shah was overthrown by his cousin Daoud Khan in 1973, who had allied himself with one of the factions of the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), a Marxist-Leninist Party formed in 1965.
After gaining power, Daoud attempted to distance the government from the Soviet Union. The PDPA reunited in 1977 and launched a coup in 1978, killing Daoud and seizing power. The government then launched radical land reforms and mass repression, leading to uprisings. The Soviet Union invaded Kabul in 1979, installing Babrak Karmal as President. The Soviet occupation force and Karmal government suppressed uprisings, resulting in one million deaths. The 1988 Geneva Accords ended the war, but the UN failed to establish a transitional process, leading to further efforts until the Taliban came to power.
In 1992, the Northern Alliance, comprising leaders like Ahmed Shah Massoud, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum and the Hazara faction Hizb-i-Wahdat, formed in opposition to the government. Non-Pashtun forces seized Kabul airport, trapping President Najibullah in the UN compound for four years. Burhanuddin Rabbani assumed the presidency, while Kabul suffered under continued bombardment by Hikmatyar. By 1994, internal conflict escalated into civil war, devastating Kabul. From this chaos, the Taliban emerged, backed by Pakistan to secure trade routes and establish a friendly government. By 1996, they seized control of Kabul, prompting Massoud to seek aid from Russia and Iran. Osama bin Laden returned, initially under tribal protection, before aligning with the Taliban. In 1997, the Taliban renamed Afghanistan the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, with Mullah Omar as its leader.
From 1997 to 1998, the Taliban aimed to seize Mazar-i Sharif, held by Dostum’s forces. They succeeded in August 1998, massacring over 2000, mainly Hazara civilians. Dostum fled to Turkey, while Malik sought refuge in Iran. The United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan (UNIF) formed, led by Rabbani, with Dostum and others as commanders. In 1998, US airstrikes targeted bin Laden’s camps, leading to UN sanctions. The Taliban’s refusal to surrender bin Laden expanded sanctions in 2000. US airstrikes in 2001 ended the Taliban regime. In 2021, the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s deteriorating ties with the Taliban provide valuable insights for policy makers. The Taliban, similar to the pre-9/11 era, are willing to take risks and prioritize foreign jihadis in Afghanistan, even without diplomatic recognition. This reflects their regime’s lack of nationalist inwardness and international concerns. Policymakers must be realistic about the Taliban’s commitment to preventing Afghan territory use for terrorism. Pakistan should increase economic pressure on the Taliban to review its support for the TTP, as Pakistan is Afghanistan’s main transit trade route and Taliban-led export market. Pakistan’s economic leverage is rooted in its landlocked status, which contributes to over 40% of Afghanistan’s customs revenues and nearly 60% of the Taliban’s total revenues. To exert more economic pain, Pakistan needs to tighten transit trade rules, impose stringent bank guarantee requirements on Afghan traders, expand a list of goods Afghanistan cannot import via Pakistan and impose duty on select commodities imported by Afghanistan.
—The writer is PhD in Political Science and visiting faculty member at QAU Islamabad.
Email: zafarkhansafdar@yahoo.com
views expressed are writer’s own.
