THE twelve days war of missiles and drones between Iran and Israel has come to an end by the Trump intervention, an uneasy calm prevails over the region but what does the future hold for the countries and millions of people living in this volatile region of the Middle East? This latest conflict in the world has now ignited a new and different political balancing act and countries in Asia and even other continents are now reshaping and rethinking their foreign policy objectives.
Every nation impacted by the happenings in the region are actively reevaluating their current positions in accordance with the policies of major world powers and the experiences of both Iran and Israel will now shape the power dynamics across the length and breadth of the Middle East.
It was after the Iran Iraq war of 1980 that Iran faced a direct threat to its territorial integrity and the long lasting American sanctions became evident in te face of the Israeli attacks it was obvious that Iran lacked a proper modern air force to defend the skies of the country. Israeli jets were not challenged when they entered the Iranian airspace and now the Iranian leaders will have change policies to meet the challenge of the Israeli air superiority.
Iran now needs to think its nuclear policy should they follow the example of Pakistan and go ahead with the development of nuclear weapons? Do they really need a nuclear umbrella to ensure the security and safety of their country? The Uranium enrichment project has definitely been damaged by the American onslaught on their nuclear assets but the extent of the damage is still being debated and the decade’s long nuclear efforts of the Iranian regime seem to be in danger of a total collapse. The long cherished Israeli dream of regime change in Iran was not realized and now the Israeli planners have a serious rethink on their hands.
Other countries in the Gulf region who host American military bases too now have some food for thoughts regarding their support for the USA, relations with Iran and their geopolitical role in the world. In spite of their best efforts Israel was not able to damage the Iranian nuclear assets and they had to beg the US to do the needful for them.
Israel has always been dependent on the US but for the first time in history the USA entered the war on the side of Israel and this gives the Trump Govt. complete and total political leverage over the political and war policies of Israel regarding Iran and the Gulf region. The Israeli actions in Ghaza, Lebanon, and Iran during the recent past have now emboldened Israel because now they consider themselves as the biggest military power in the region and this will create more unease in the traditional opponents in the Arab Israel conflict especially Egypt, Jordan and Syria with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf counties in the back ground. The most effected people in this war were the nations of the Gulf region. For decades the oil rich countries of the gulf have been dependent on the USA for their security and safety and along with Israel considered Iran a threat for their sovereignty. Just before the Ghaza attack by Israel Saudi Arabia was on the verge of recognizing Israel like UAE, Qatar and Bahrain but now a new threat has emerged with Iran’s assault on the US bases in other countries of the Gulf region.
Policy planners in countries of the region will now have to reshape and redesign their policies in te post war Iran Israeli war. They will have to accept the existing but weaker regime in Iran and be prepared for the next inevitable war in their areas and to have closer relations with Iran, China and Russia. All the countries in the Gulf are against a nuclear armed Iran because they fear policies of Iranian regime and their religious belief but they also fear civil unrest in Iran that could lead to the nuclear program falling into the wrong hands. The great powers of the word such as the US China Russia and the EU the changing geopolitical scenario of the Middle East will affect their global policies and foreign policy objectives. The USA is now the most active player and influencer in this conflict and would like to keep itself out of any new entanglements or conflicts in the region. The previous American Govt. and now the Trump regime have always supported the countries of the Middle East backed by the Abraham accords that is encouraging the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries and ignoring the burning issue of Palestine.
The USA is now focused on countering the growing influence of China and is anxious to relocate its military resources to the Asia Pacific region. The complete absence of Russia and China from the Iran Israel war is still an unexplained mystery because the American involvement is beneficial for both China and Russia but at the same time it undermines and weakness Russian and Chinese partner Iran, but for reasons best knon to them Chna and Russia both decided to stay away from the conflict.
Russia called time out because of its deep and costly involvement in Ukraine and China is focused on economic leap forward and a trade war with the USA so both of them have no appetite for a new adventure like the conflict in the Middle East. Both countries at the same time would not allow Israel to become the dominant power in the Middle East.
In future foreign policy changes both China and Russia will do their best to stabilize the Iranian economy provide greater assistance in improving the Iranian armed forces and the country’s infrastructure. For now the post war scenario in the Middle East has many ifs and buts and this region is now the most volatile and combustible part of the world and it is up to the contestants and the world leaders to douse fires of conflict and ensure peace and safety for millions of citizens and the world at large.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
